Landslide susceptibility zonation method based on C5.0 decision tree and K-means cluster algorithms to improve the efficiency of risk management   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Zizheng Guo  Yu Shi  Faming Huang  Xuanmei Fan  Jinsong Huang 《地学前缘(英文版)》2021,12(6):243-261

Machine learning algorithms are an important measure with which to perform landslide susceptibility assessments,but most studies use GIS-based classification methods to conduct susceptibility zonation.This study presents a machine learning approach based on the C5.0 decision tree(DT)model and the K-means cluster algorithm to produce a regional landslide susceptibility map.Yanchang County,a typical landslide-prone area located in northwestern China,was taken as the area of interest to introduce the proposed application procedure.A landslide inventory containing 82 landslides was prepared and subse-quently randomly partitioned into two subsets:training data(70％landslide pixels)and validation data(30％landslide pixels).Fourteen landslide influencing factors were considered in the input dataset and were used to calculate the landslide occurrence probability based on the C5.0 decision tree model.Susceptibility zonation was implemented according to the cut-off values calculated by the K-means clus-ter algorithm.The validation results of the model performance analysis showed that the AUC(area under the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve)of the proposed model was the highest,reaching 0.88,compared with traditional models(support vector machine(SVM)=0.85,Bayesian network(BN)=0.81,frequency ratio(FR)=0.75,weight of evidence(WOE)=0.76).The landslide frequency ratio and fre-quency density of the high susceptibility zones were 6.76/km2 and 0.88/km2,respectively,which were much higher than those of the low susceptibility zones.The top 20％interval of landslide occurrence probability contained 89％of the historical landslides but only accounted for 10.3％of the total area.Our results indicate that the distribution of high susceptibility zones was more focused without contain-ing more"stable"pixels.Therefore,the obtained susceptibility map is suitable for application to landslide risk management practices.  相似文献   

降水对江浙沪PM_(2.5)的清除效率研究     

范凡  陆尔  葛宝珠  王自发 《气象科学》2019,39(2):178-186

为了解不同程度的降水对江浙沪地区大气PM_(2.5)的清除作用,搜集了2014—2016年该地区41个城市的降水和PM_(2.5)观测数据,通过对比2 a非降水和全时段PM_(2.5)平均浓度的差异,发现前者显著高于后者,说明降水对该地区PM_(2.5)具有清除作用。利用降水前与降水期间PM_(2.5)的浓度差异作为降水对PM_(2.5)的清除率,降水后与降水期间的浓度差异作为雨后浓度回升的增加率,分别研究了目标区域不同时期、不同降雨量以及不同降雨时长对PM_(2.5)的清除效果。结果显示:(1)与江浙沪南部地区不同的是,北部地区降水清除率与降水前浓度存在正相关,降水后浓度的增加与当地的排放量呈正相关。(2)当降水量为30 mm或者降水时长为36 h时,清除率增幅减缓,说明降水对PM_(2.5)的清除效率存在着阈值。  相似文献   

94/220 GHz星载雷达双波长比对非球形冰晶云参数敏感性分析          下载免费PDF全文

吴举秀  窦芳丽  安大伟  顾瑜  周青  刘伟 《气象学报》2019,77(3):529-540

利用不同形状冰晶的散射特性,获得了非球形冰晶云的94/220 GHz测云雷达双波长比,探讨了非球形冰晶云的双波长比与云内微物理参数的关系,分析了衰减前后的星载雷达反射率因子及双波长比的垂直廓线。结果表明:（1）双波长比可以反映小到0.1 mm中值尺度的冰粒子,对粒子总数、谱的形状参数不敏感,对粒子大小、形状、云衰减较敏感。（2）雷达灵敏度一定时,星载雷达可测云厚与雷达波长、冰含水量（IWC）的垂直分布、云厚及衰减有关;没有进行衰减订正时,双波长比和衰减有关,冰含水量越大,波长越短,衰减越大,双波长比最大值与可探测云厚有关。两部雷达可探测冰含水量为0.001—0.1 g/m3、厚2 km的冰云;当云厚5 km、冰含水量垂直分布在0.001—0.2 g/m3时,云厚的94%基本可以被220 GHz云雷达探测到。（3）如果两部雷达气象方程中用水的介电因子,测量回波强度应进行介电因子的订正后再计算双波长比。   相似文献   

台风“摩羯”与“温比亚”环流中龙卷小尺度涡旋特征及可预警性分析          下载免费PDF全文

刁秀广  孟宪贵  张立  任钟冬  赵海军 《山东气象》2019,39(3):19-28

利用多普勒天气雷达探测资料,结合常规气象观测资料和天气实况及灾情调查,对2018年8月14日台风“摩羯”（1814）和8月19日台风“温比亚”（1818）产生龙卷的环境物理量及龙卷风暴强度结构特征进行了分析,对诱发龙卷和未诱发龙卷的小尺度气旋性涡旋特征进行了对比。结果表明：两次台风减弱低压东北象限是龙卷发生的关键区,低层高湿,强的低层垂直风切变和大的相对风暴螺旋度是关键物理量;龙卷出现时都伴有ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1的小尺度气旋性涡旋,且基本出现在2.0 km高度以下,但并不是所有这种低层小尺度气旋性涡旋都能诱发龙卷;以ΔV＞20.0 m·s-1为阈值,龙卷识别具有较高的命中率,识别准确率为31.8%,空报率为67.4%,漏报率为6.7%;约35.7%的龙卷没有识别时间提前量,半数龙卷几乎没有预警时间提前量。  相似文献   

Anatomy of a subduction complex: architecture of the Franciscan Complex,California, at multiple length and time scales   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

John Wakabayashi 《International Geology Review》2015,57(5-8):669-746

The Franciscan Complex of California records over 150 million years of continuous E-dipping subduction that terminated with conversion to a dextral transform plate boundary. The Franciscan comprises mélange and coherent units forming a stack of thrust nappes, with significant along-strike variability, and downward-decreasing metamorphic grade and accretion ages. The Franciscan records progressive subduction, accretion, metamorphism, and exhumation, spanning the extended period of subduction, rather than events superimposed on pre-existing stratigraphy. High-pressure (HP) metamorphic rocks lack a thermal overprint, indicating continuity of subduction from subduction initiation at ca. 165 Ma to termination at ca. 25 Ma. Accretionary periods may have alternated with episodes of subduction erosion that removed some previously accreted material, but the complex collectively reflects a net addition of material to the upper plate. Mélanges (serpentinite and siliciclastic matrix) with exotic blocks have sedimentary origins as submarine mass transport deposits, whereas mélanges formed by tectonism comprise disrupted ocean plate stratigraphy and lack exotic blocks. The former are interbedded with and grade into coherent siliciclastic units. Palaeomegathrust horizons, separating nappes accreted at different times, appear restricted to narrow zones of <100 m thickness. Exhumation of Franciscan units, both coherent and mélange, was accommodated by significant extension of the hanging wall and cross-sectional extrusion. The amount of total exhumation, as well as exhumation since subduction termination, needs to be considered when comparing Franciscan architecture to modern and ancient subduction complexes. Equal dextral separation of folded Franciscan nappes and late Cenozoic (post-subduction) units across strands of the (post-subduction) San Andreas fault system shows that the folding of nappes took place prior to subduction termination. Dextral separation of similar clastic sedimentary suites in the Franciscan and the coeval Great Valley Group forearc basin is approximately that of the San Andreas fault system, precluding major syn-subduction strike-slip displacement within the Franciscan.  相似文献   

Polygonal deformation bands     

《Journal of Structural Geology》2015

We report for the first time the occurrence of polygonal faults in sandstone, which is compelling given that layer-bound polygonal fault systems have been observed so far only in fine-grained sediments such as clay and chalk. The polygonal faults are shear deformation bands that developed under shallow burial conditions via strain hardening in dm-wide zones. The edges of the polygons are 1–5 m long. The shear deformation bands are organized as conjugate faults along each edge of the polygon and form characteristic horst-like structures. The individual deformation bands have slip magnitudes ranging from a few mm to 1.5 cm; the cumulative average slip magnitude in a zone is up to 10 cm. The deformation bands heaves, in aggregate form, accommodate a small isotropic horizontal extension (strain <0.005). The individual shear deformation bands show abutting T-junctions, veering, curving, and merging where they mechanically interact. Crosscutting relationships are rare. The interactions of the deformation bands are similar to those of mode I opening fractures. The documented fault networks have important implications for evaluating the geometry of km-scale polygonal fault systems in the subsurface, top seal integrity, as well as constraining paleo-tectonic stress regimes.  相似文献   

The burial of biogenic silica,organic carbon and organic nitrogen in the sediments of the East China Sea     

Wang  Lisha  Zhang  Chuansong  Shi  Xiaoyong 《中国海洋大学学报(英文版)》2015,14(3):464-470

We sampled the sediments of the East China Sea during 2005 and 2006, and analysed the contents of the biogenic mat-ters: biogenic silica, organic carbon, and organic nitrogen. From the surface distribu...  相似文献   

复合地基单元体弹性解析解与Priebe法的比较     

张仪萍  饶勤波  王洋  李涛 《岩土力学》2011,32(8):2397-2401

基于复合地基等应变条件下应力和位移的精确解,得到了桩土应力比、沉降比、径向位移和桩土侧压力系数等的计算公式。分析了它们随桩土压缩模量比和置换率的变化规律,并在分析过程中与Priebe法做了比较,详细分析了Priebe法中所做假设对计算结果的影响。分析表明,Priebe法中忽略桩体体积应变的假设会带来较大的误差,而针对径向变形计算和桩土侧压力系数的假定由于影响的相互抵消作用,其综合影响不一定很大。  相似文献   

非均质地基中平面应变隧道开挖面稳定上限分析     

宋春霞  黄茂松  吕玺琳 《岩土力学》2011,32(9):2645-2650

非均质是软黏土地基中比较普遍的现象,而目前隧道开挖面稳定研究中比较成熟的理论主要是针对均质土体。因此,从塑性极限分析上限法的基本原理出发,采用平面应变隧道刚体平动破坏模式(多块体上限法),考虑软黏土地基的非均质性,推导了平面应变隧道极限支护压力关于隧道埋深、土体重度及土体强度的上限公式。通过与其他方法的比较分析,证明了极限分析方法在隧道开挖面稳定性方面的可行性;利用该方法的计算结果详细探讨了隧道开挖面稳定的影响因素;而且由计算结果可知,地基土的非均质性在影响隧道开挖面极限支护压力的同时,也影响着隧道开挖破坏面的位置和形状,为工程实践提供重要的理论依据。  相似文献   

基于Hock-Brown强度准则的高应力判据理论分析   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王成虎  郭啟良  贾龙 《岩土力学》2011,32(11):3325-3332

如何评价工程岩体中赋存的应力状态一直是工程设计人员所要面对的基本问题之一.应力状态评价需综合考虑岩体强度和岩体中赋存的应力两个要素,其评价结果反映了地下结构围岩在二次应力场作用下满足岩体强度准则时可能的变形破坏响应.通过对前人研究成果的分析,总结出高应力作用下地下结构的基本变形破坏规律.利用Hoek-Brown强度准则...  相似文献